Shaking Things Up
By Brett Bralley
Photo: Patrick Record
Kim Blisniuk reveals new information about the biggest earthquake threat Southern California faces
Ten years ago, two female geologists went for a hike in the Coachella Valley desert along a southern portion of the San Andreas Fault. One of them was Kimberly Blisniuk, now an associate professor of geology at San Jos茅 State University. The pair spent days in the desert, traversing the landscape, studying its ridges and formations.
They weren鈥檛 sure what they were looking for. The San Andreas is a well-studied fault: The roughly 750-mile geographical rift running the length of most of California is positioned to set off what鈥檚 known as the next 鈥淏ig One鈥濃�攁 massive earthquake predicted to strike Southern California, devastating the Los Angeles area, in particular.
Still, Blisniuk wanted to see if the terrain revealed something鈥攁nything鈥攖hat might have been missed or not yet understood by geologists before them.
Sure enough, she found something. And after a decade of work to confirm her discovery, Blisniuk鈥檚 research, , indicates that the highly anticipated earthquake鈥攚hich scientists say is about 80 years overdue鈥攎ight not ravage LA as much as previously thought.
Persistent to a fault
To understand Blisniuk鈥檚 findings, it鈥檚 important to understand how scientists use the San Andreas Fault to predict earthquakes.
The fault is the geographical meetup spot between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate. As two plates move past each other over time, they create friction. That friction, or strain, increases, culminating in an earth-jolting release, .
But the fault isn鈥檛 just one single line鈥攖here are several smaller 鈥渟trands鈥� that make up the San Andreas, the LA Times reports鈥攁nd each carries a portion of the strain that may cause an earthquake.
What scientists try to pinpoint is which strand carries the most strain, says the LA Times. That way, they have a better idea of where the next earthquake might strike. They determine this by looking at how fast two sides of a fault move past, or 鈥渟lip,鈥� relative to one another, also known as the 鈥渟lip rate.鈥�
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Kim Blisniuk (featured in back of photo) leads 无忧短视频 geology students on a trip to
the Mission Creek fault strand in the Coachella Valley, where they learned to map
active faults.Three particular strands run through Coachella Valley鈥擥arnet Hill, Banning and Mission Creek. It has long been thought that Garnet Hill and Banning carried the most strain, according to Blisniuk鈥檚 study, and that strain would trigger a massive 7.8 magnitude earthquake.
According to the , that earthquake could cause unprecedented damage to Southern California, including more than 1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries and $200 billion in damages and other losses.
But during her desert expedition, Blisniuk was studying the landscape surrounding Pushawalla Canyon, which sits along the Mission Creek strand. Nearby the canyon, 鈥淚 saw these channels preserved in the landscape,鈥� she recalled.
They were what the study refers to as 鈥渂eheaded鈥� channels. Blisniuk hypothesized that they had been moved from their original location in the canyon by a series of earthquakes. If she were correct, that would mean the impending earthquake might shake out a bit differently.
鈥淭his study really challenges the paradigm of what we thought about the history of the faults and which faults were active,鈥� she explained. 鈥淲e had to have the soundest data to challenge that paradigm.鈥�
So Blisniuk began the years-long process of exploring her idea.
 The only way you can transform science is by bringing new ideas and perspectives into that science. San Jos茅 State is promoting an environment that brings in diverse perspectives so that we can transform science. In doing that, we鈥檙e also transforming students and transforming an academic institution. 鈥擪im Blisniuk  |
A new forecast
Her analysis discovered that the three channels, all of which fell within a little more than a mile from the main canyon, ranged from 25,000 to 95,000 years old鈥攊ndicating her hypothesis was correct. Seismic activity was occurring in an area that was supposed to be dormant.Blisniuk鈥檚 research started while she was a postdoc at UC Berkeley; then she moved her work to San Jos茅 State in 2015 when she joined the Department of Geology.
Understanding the ages of those channels鈥攑lus confirming their origin through soil composition鈥攁llowed them to calculate the slip rate for the Mission Creek strand: 21.6 millimeters per year.
Compare that to the Banning strand, which had a slip rate of 2.5 millimeters per year. That confirmed that Mission Creek was holding the vast majority of the strain across the plate boundary and the San Andreas fault.
If the Banning strand were to trigger the next massive earthquake, it would likely hit the Los Angeles area hard. But if the Mission Creek strand released the strain instead, it might not be quite as catastrophic.
鈥淲e鈥檒l still get a lot of shaking and a big earthquake in LA,鈥� Blisniuk noted. 鈥淏ut it will be slightly less because it鈥檚 on a slightly different route. This earthquake will still be big, but what will change is where the high risk is distributed.鈥�
What can Southern Californians, or Californians in general, do with this knowledge?
鈥淭he bottom line is that we should always be prepared for an earthquake in California, because we know it will happen,鈥� Blisniuk emphasized. 鈥淚t's just a matter of when.鈥�
Photo: Patrick Record
Transforming earthquake science at 无忧短视频
As she put it, some may consider it 鈥渙ld school鈥� what Blisniuk does鈥�. But her work adds serious value to understanding how seismic activity can impact society and shape our world.
鈥淚 think the concept of field geologists and going out into the field鈥攍ess and less people are interested in such work or such challenges,鈥� she explained. 鈥淵ou鈥檙e hiking all day, you don't know where you鈥檙e going, you鈥檙e in the middle of nowhere.
鈥淭here鈥檚 a lot of funding for earthquake research for monitoring, funding that goes toward buying fancy equipment,鈥� she continued.
鈥淏ut there鈥檚 less money that goes to scientists or geologists who go and walk and map faults. I hope from my work people see the value of collecting field data to understand earthquake hazard and earthquake geology. That is one of the key factors in understanding these fault systems and understanding earthquakes鈥攚e have to collect that data that the earth preserves for us in any way possible.鈥�
In 2019, Blisniuk received the , one of the most prestigious honors supporting early-career faculty. The next year, .
Working at San Jos茅 State has not only allowed her to delve into important research; it鈥檚 allowed her to make a difference in advancing diversity in her field. An immigrant from Vietnam, Blisniuk said she chose to bring her research to 无忧短视频 to help serve the university鈥檚 Vietnamese community.
鈥淪an Jos茅 State prides itself on its diversity and engaging diverse student populations, and as faculty in the geology department, I am part of that diversity,鈥� she explained.
鈥淭he field of geological sciences is one of the least diverse, so I think by coming into the field of earthquake geology as a female, as a minority, I have been able to transform what everyone else saw in the field. I came with my own perspectives and viewpoints to reinterpret the science.鈥�
The university鈥檚 decision to hire a woman of color is part of , she added.
鈥淭he only way you can transform science is by bringing new ideas and perspectives into that science. San Jos茅 State is promoting an environment that brings in diverse perspectives so that we can transform science. In doing that, we鈥檙e also transforming students and transforming an academic institution.鈥�
Now that the research has been published, Blisniuk suspects this finding will continue to be explored by other researchers as they work to better understand the looming earthquake awaiting Southern California.
While earthquakes can be devastating and鈥攜es, even to Blisniuk鈥攕cary, each one reveals something we didn鈥檛 know before, she explained. And she鈥檚 excited to be part of that.
鈥淚 want my research to be meaningful,鈥� she said. 鈥淎nything I publish, I want it to stand the test of time. I put as much integrity in my science as I can so that in 100 years, when people say I am wrong, they realize I did the best that I could.鈥�
